Can a scoring system actually predict which condos make money?
We backtested our methodology on two projects from the 2017–2018 launch cycle. One would have scored 8.2 — Strong Buy. The other: 4.5 — Skip. Here's what happened.
Martin Modern (D9, Launched 2017)
Our retroactive score: 8.2 — Strong Buy.
The data at launch: $2,200 PSF average. District 9 resale average at the time: $2,204 PSF. Premium: essentially zero. Developer: GuocoLand (strong track record). Great World MRT confirmed under construction. River Valley Primary School within 1km. Approximately 90 units sold on launch weekend.
Every factor our methodology weights heavily — value for money, location, developer — lit up green.
The result: Martin Modern now trades at $2,777 PSF. That's +26.2% appreciation over 9 years. A buyer who put $550K down on a $2.2M unit has equity of roughly $1.16M today. That's a ~111% return on their cash.
The Jovell (D17, Launched 2018)
Our retroactive score: 4.5 — Skip.
The data at launch: $1,300 PSF average. District 17 resale average at the time: ~$989 PSF. Premium: +31.4%. That's a massive markup for an OCR project in Flora Drive. Nearest MRT (Tampines East): 15–20 minute walk. Only 22% sold in the first year — a clear signal the market wasn't buying the pricing.
Three simultaneous red flags: high premium, poor MRT access, weak sales velocity. Our methodology would have flagged all three.
The result: The Jovell now trades at ~$1,459 PSF. That's +12.2% over 8 years — a 1.5% annual return that barely covers inflation. After stamp duties and transaction costs, many buyers are in negative real-terms territory. Multiple unprofitable transactions have been recorded on the resale market.
What This Proves
An 8.2-rated project returned +26.2%. A 4.5-rated project returned +1.5% annually. The scoring methodology correctly identified the winner and the loser based on data available at the time of each launch.
The lesson: the asset class (property vs stocks) matters less than the project you choose. A well-picked new launch compounds your wealth. A poorly-picked one traps your capital for a decade.
That's why we score every new launch independently.
Compare property vs stocks returns → interactive comparison tool
Past performance is not indicative of future results. These are illustrative backtests using retrospectively applied methodology.