Interactive Tool

Property vs Stocks: 20 Years of Singapore Returns, Compared

we built this tool because everyone argues about property vs stocks, but nobody runs the actual numbers. so we did. we compare S&P 500, STI, and Singapore condo returns across every timeframe from 5 to 20 years — using verified URA, FRED (St. Louis Fed), and MAS data.

stocks are modelled as unleveraged investments with estimated dividends reinvested. property is modelled with an intrinsic 4× leverage factor from a standard 25% down payment — we also factored in buyer stamp duty and mortgage interest costs at an estimated 2.5% average rate.

pick a timeframe. see the data. decide for yourself.

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growth of $100 invested. stocks include estimated dividends reinvested (2% p.a. for S&P 500, 4% p.a. for STI). property is modelled with 4× leverage from 25% down payment, including buyer stamp duty and mortgage interest at 2.5% average.

Source: URA Non-Landed PPI · FRED (St. Louis Fed) · MAS · Yahoo Finance. Last updated May 2026.

Returns over 7 years — as you'd actually invest

Asset	Total Return	Per Year	Worst Quarter
US Equities (S&P 500, dividends reinvested, SGD)	+0.0%	+0.0%	-20.2%
SG Equities (STI, dividends reinvested)	+0.0%	+0.0%	-25.7%
SG Private Property (25% down)	+0.0%	+0.0%	-1.3%

How we calculate these numbers →

at 7 years, it's essentially a dead heat. the S&P 500 edges property by a few percentage points, but property got there with dramatically less volatility — no −34% drawdowns, no panic selling.

Read the full analysis: Stocks vs Singapore Property — the honest verdict →

What happened in March 2020?

−34%

S&P 500 peak-to-trough

$500K in US stocks → $330K in 5 weeks. Hands shaking. Spouse asking: "should we sell?"

−1%

SG Property (URA PPI)

$2M condo → $1.98M. You checked the index (maybe). Shrugged. Went back to Netflix.

Both recovered by 2026. Only one let you sleep through it. The chart shows leveraged equity, which amplifies both gains and losses. The raw condo price drop was 1% — the smaller equity swing you see is the leverage effect on a declining asset.

“Your stock portfolio dropped 34% in March 2020. Your condo? Down about 1%. You were renovating.”

groundfloor.sg

The honest take

Over 7 to 15 years, stocks outperform property in raw returns — that's the honest truth. But extend the window to 20 years, and leveraged property actually pulls ahead. The winner depends on your timeframe, your starting point, and whether you can stomach −34% drawdowns.

But here's what raw returns miss: you don't buy a condo with cash. You put 25% down. The bank covers the rest.

Your down payment

$500K (25% of $2M)

Buyer stamp duty (paid upfront)

-$65K

Property appreciates 45.2% (7-yr URA Non-Landed PPI)

Now worth $2.90M

Remaining mortgage (after 7 yrs)

-$1.33M

Total interest paid (7 yrs @ 2.5% avg)

-$165K

Net return on your $565K

+149.3% (after all costs)

With a mortgage, property gets competitive. Not because property appreciates faster — it doesn't. But because a 25% down payment gives you exposure to 100% of the appreciation.

And unlike your stock portfolio, your condo doesn't drop 34% in five weeks and keep you up at 3 AM. You can build equity in your home while the market does whatever it does.

Is that worth giving up a few percentage points of return? That's your call, not ours.

Read our full analysis →

Mortgage interest estimated at 2.5% p.a. average — actual rates vary by lender, loan tenure, and market conditions.

“$500K down payment. $2M condo. 7 years later: your $565K became $1.4M.”

groundfloor.sg

Our scoring methodology predicted actual returns: Martin Modern vs The Jovell — the backtest →

You need a roof anyway. Choose wisely.

Most buyers pick a new launch based on showflat impressions and word of mouth. But not every project is built equal — the difference between a smart choice and a mediocre one can be hundreds of thousands of dollars over a decade.

We built a scoring system that weighs the five factors that actually predict outcomes: how much you're paying over resale (40%), location and MRT access (25%), design and layout (15%), developer track record (10%), and market timing (10%).

Applied retroactively to 2017 data, our methodology would have scored Martin Modern (D9, GuocoLand) at 8.2 — Strong Buy. zero premium, confirmed MRT, proven developer. it returned +26.2%.

The Jovell (D17, 2018) would have scored 4.5 — Skip. +31% premium, no MRT, only 22% sold in year one. it returned just +1.5% per year — barely above inflation.

the project you pick matters more than the asset class.

See which current new launches score highest →Read the full backtest: Martin Modern vs The Jovell →How we score every project →

How we calculate these numbers

Stocks

S&P 500 prices verified against FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data, St. Louis Fed) and Yahoo Finance. STI prices from Yahoo Finance. All prices adjusted to SGD using MAS end-of-period exchange rates (Monetary Authority of Singapore Financial Database). We add an estimated 2% annual dividend for S&P 500 and 4% for STI, compounded quarterly. Dividends are reinvested — not paid out.

Property

Based on URA's Non-Landed Private Residential Property Price Index (condos and apartments only, base 2009-Q1 = 100) — not the overall index which includes bungalows and terrace houses.

we model a $2M purchase with 25% down payment ($500K) and a 75% bank mortgage ($1.5M) at 2.5% average interest rate. buyer stamp duties ($65K), progressive interest-only payments during construction (years 1–4), and full monthly mortgage amortisation post-TOP are all factored in.

the Progressive Payment Scheme (PPS) is mandatory by law for all new launch condo purchases in Singapore under the Housing Developers (Control and Licensing) Act — this is not a special assumption. during construction, only partial mortgage drawdowns occur (~40% average), which reduces interest costs compared to a full drawdown from day one. we tested the difference: modelling a resale-style full mortgage from day one (no progressive payments) reduces the 7-year leveraged return by roughly 10–15 percentage points, and the 20-year return by roughly 10 percentage points. the long-term story does not change — leverage and appreciation drive the result, not the payment schedule.

the appreciation rate comes from the URA Non-Landed Private Residential Property Price Index — which tracks all condos and apartments (both new launches and resale), not specifically new launches. this is the broadest and most conservative benchmark available.

Returns are calculated on total initial outlay ($565K), and the remaining mortgage balance at sale is used — not the original $1.5M — so equity built through principal repayment is properly credited.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. This tool is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Actual returns depend on the specific property, timing, interest rates, and market conditions. Please consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

data last verified: may 2026. S&P 500 quarterly data verified against FRED (fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500). exchange rates verified against MAS end-of-period data. URA Non-Landed PPI extracted from URA PMI portal. we update this tool quarterly when new URA data is published.

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Frequently asked questions

Is a Singapore condo a better investment than stocks?

Over the past 7 years (2019–2026), the S&P 500 (with dividends, SGD-adjusted) returned approximately +152% vs Singapore condo at +45% unleveraged (URA Non-Landed PPI). With a 25% down payment and full mortgage amortization, the net cash-on-cash return on a Singapore condo was approximately +149% — nearly identical to stocks. At 20 years, leveraged property actually overtakes the S&P 500 in SGD terms. Stocks still win on volatility management over short windows, but property experienced dramatically less drawdown: around -1% during COVID vs -34% for the S&P 500.

What is the average Singapore condo appreciation rate over 7 years?

Based on the URA Non-Landed Private Residential Property Price Index, Singapore private residential property (condos) appreciated approximately 45% over the 7 years from 2019 to 2026 (about 5.5% CAGR). With a standard 25% down payment, buyer stamp duties, and mortgage amortization included, the net cash-on-cash return on total initial outlay ($565K) was approximately +149%. Real-world examples from the 2019 vintage (Treasure at Tampines, Parc Esta, Stirling Residences) showed 33–38% capital appreciation.

How does leverage affect Singapore property investment returns?

A 25% down payment gives you exposure to 100% of the property appreciation. With $500K down on a $2M condo, a 45% appreciation (URA Non-Landed PPI, 2019–2026) grows your gross equity — but the correct calculation uses the remaining mortgage balance after amortization (~$1.33M after 7 years, not the original $1.5M). After stamp duties (~$65K) and mortgage interest (~$165K at 2.5% average), net profit is ~$844K on a $565K initial outlay, giving approximately +149% net return. Unlike margin-based leverage in stocks, property owners are not forced to sell during price declines.

What was the worst drawdown for Singapore property vs stocks?

During the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the S&P 500 dropped over 57% and the STI dropped similarly, taking years to recover. The URA Non-Landed PPI (condos) dropped about 26% (peak Q1 2008 at 129.0 → trough Q2 2009 at 95.3) but recovered within 2 years. During COVID-19 in 2020, the S&P 500 dropped 34% while Singapore condo prices dropped only about 1%.

Why does Singapore property outperform stocks over 20 years but not over 15?

This comes down to start-date sensitivity. The 20-year window begins in 2006, just before Singapore's massive property boom — the Non-Landed PPI rose ~60% from 2006 to 2011. It also includes the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, where the S&P 500 lost ~20% in SGD terms (price stagnation plus SGD strengthening). With 4× mortgage leverage, property's early head start compounds powerfully over two decades. The 15-year window starts in 2011, after the boom, so it misses property's best years entirely. This doesn't mean one asset class is categorically better — it means your entry point and holding period matter enormously. At 7 to 15 years, stocks clearly win. We show all five timeframes so you can judge for yourself.