Vela Bay

Vela Bay scores 3.8 out of 10 — the lowest Deal Score in our entire scoring series. At +75.6% over D16 modern resale, it is the most expensive project relative to its district benchmark of any project we have scored. The 75.6% premium is not a rounding error — it's a structural problem. The Bayshore precinct is real. 70% of units face the sea. East Coast Park is an underpass away. Bayshore MRT is a 2-minute walk. SingHaiyi paid $1,388 PSF PPR against 8 competing bids, marking it up 2.08x to $2,886 average PSF. The vision is compelling. But vision doesn't make a 75.6% premium acceptable. Even adjusting for the fact that D16's modern resale stock covers the wider Bedok/East Coast area (which inflates the gap), the premium remains the highest in our series by a wide margin — and 28% of units went unsold at launch, confirming the market agrees.

A 75.6% premium over D16 modern resale is the fundamental problem — the highest in our entire scoring series. You need extraordinary Bayshore appreciation just to break even after stamp duties and transaction costs. D16's modern resale stock includes the wider Bedok/East Coast area, not just Bayshore — the 75.6% premium reflects this geographic spread and may overstate the true local gap, but even at a discount the premium is extreme. SingHaiyi's 2.08x land markup leaves little margin if Bayshore takes longer than expected to mature. The 28% unsold at launch is a clear market signal — the price needs to be earned by precinct proof, not priced in on speculation. This is the project in our series we have the most caution about.